Budget ... the reason...Cash is also a trading position

Sensex falls by 800-900 points - --

My speculation was tilting on positive side :) oops... But was not convinced enough ... So what does one do...

Simple - When confused -- Do Nothing !!! --- When in doubt stay out...

So last 1 week or so its been more relaxed with not much of updates and all chat etc answers are wait... Nothing forces us to trade every move but the lowest risk and confident move. Maybe would prefer to watch a little more :)

Now lets get back to technicals as i am not an economist to talk on the budget.

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex has broken below the short term trendline of 14550 which was a stoploss level for all short term speculative longs. Now the index might be in a possible Head and Shoulders pattern but would still wait for a few sessions below the neckline of 14200 to confirm.

We may also see a re-test of the neckline and a possible move about it also before confirming the pattern as the current drop is a knee jerk reaction so next few sessions would clear up the noise on charts.

13900-14200 is a band which if broken will lead to a more deeper correction to 13500/12700 or lower . Would pull a detailed view after 2-3 sessions till then strategy is to wait and watch.

Cash is also a trading position !!!

This is an important line which many traders love to forget and end up over trading/lose discipline. All our readers/clients had a great time from 9.5k to 15.5k with super trades and took a rightful position to increase cash at 15.5k.

Got in a lil at 14k-14.2k did get a decent bounce and back to square one. If still holding on stops would be 13.9k for fresh entries.

Sometimes doing Nothing is also good. We would be back in full force after a few sessions be it on either side up or down.

Stocks to watchout for :

Tata Steel 380-415 , DLF 305 -345 and many such ranges were discussed before. Now after a sharp move of 10-15% from our support levels many stocks are back to similar levels or just below it. So all we had was a full circle !! and back to nothing. Many HNS , trendline breakouts seen. So after 2-3 sessions of clarity or confirmatory selling days would give good trading opportunities on either side.

Discussed below are stocks with their supports and recent lows. The lows are equivalent to 14k Sensex and 4100 Nifty levels.

Major stocks and sustaining below these levels for 2-3 sessions would confirm trend change or selling pressure. Holding them could see a small bounce to the extent of 5-8 %. Decide ur trade accordingly.Rounded levels for guidance.

Bank Of India 14k/recent lows -- 309 cmp 327 todays low 315

Bank of Baroda 400 407 398

BHEL 2008 2100 2062

DLF 309 303 305

HDFC Bank 1350 1427 1400

HDFC 2215 2350 2307

ICICI Bank 675 678 665

Larsen and Toubro 1408 1467 1448

Reliance 1900 1893 1865

Reliance Infra 1098 1131 1108

So of the major stocks a large section of stocks are very close to 14k levels which gives a possibility of a small bounce even if they have to crack deeper. Stoplosses are difficult to place on short side unless there is more selling pressure built up and momentum fall.

Trading a bounce should be with a 3-4% stop below 14k lows. Shorts should be below 5% of lows or on rise of 8-10%. Just a rough technical indication rest traders can trust their instincts :)

Personal view is to wait on sidelines and yet again start researching on mid cap stocks. Look for pyramiding strategy but slow and little early this time !!

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Sensex trend remains up. ... Wait and Watch.

Sensex Technical View :

The index has done nothing in last few days but technical analysts have started pondering widely on different possibilities or patterns which have still not formed .....

In the extreme short term as i have always said REACT RATHER THEN PREDICT ...

So starting of with explaining the notations on the chart and also the observations in the line below.

Few of the notations on Charts with focus on ELECTION time and BUDGET TIME

1) Ellipse showing the pattern at Elections and Budget -- Blue

Bit of similarity but a lesser range days this time

2) Momentum Trendline - Blue and Red

Just a little dip below in both cases. ( false alert )

3) Arrows for Tops

Similar tops seen around higher end it was 12300 before now 14950 ! ( Also previous ckt top at 14930 )

4) Short term Trendline -- Orange and Purple

Recent daily bottoms were seen around short term trendline which were support levels holding up !!

Observations :

-- > There are a lot of similarities in both the formations before the External events. Similar fractals.

-- > The resultant move after elections was on the upside.

-- > Of all the technical observations nothing points to a trend changing indication as of yet.

-- > Short term trendline holding up is an indication of not many market participants taking a bet towards a negative breakdown.

-- > The market has moved up a lot and upmoves are not larger in magnitude now which might be a sign of exhaustion setting in.

-- > If the index has to break down there would be enough opportunities to react ( short ) below the short term trendline or on break of 14200 which is still 700 points away now.

-- > The trend remains positive but not strong as before. A move beyond 15500 may open up to 16050-16200 also.

-- > Only a conclusive move below 14200-14k confirms a trend change which can lead to further retracement to 38% .

Possible HnS ??

There is a lot of buzz around amongst lot of analysts , trackers about a possible Head and Shoulders ( HNS ) being formed on the indices. Similar pattern seen on Dow and SnP as well as other indices.

BUT --

Head and Shoulders is a pattern which gets completed only when the neckline breaks ( may even be followed by a re-test of line ).

Its not a predictive pattern. One needs to wait for lot of confirmations. Otherwise every other move on the index can be assumed to be a possible HNS or Inverted HNS.

So as of now till the neckline is not broken its not into consideration. If it breaks ideally every trader would get opportunity to utilize it so why WORRY now.

Conclusion :

TREND still remains up and many signifcant observations still remain positive. Probability of a further stretch to 15500/16050 remains high. Strategy should be to keep a stop of 14200 or short term trendline at 14550 for longs which should not be heavy !! .

"" If you are not in the market all you can lose is an opportunity Not Money""

Continue to adopt the wait and watch approach .... Detailed view and strategies again after tomorrows move which can also be a NO -EVENT.

Above analysis and work on site/schemes and lot lot more may keep me busy for the week so stock specific updates woud be lesser ( none today )

DO CHECK THE NEW SCHEMES AND OUR SITE --- Details posted below.

Send us your reviews on analyseindia@gmail.com and analyseindia@analyseindia.com

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Stay light relax ... Fresh view after budget ..

Nothing seems to have changed today so just go through the last 2 days Sensex view :

http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/2009/07/nothing-conclusive-on-either-side-keep.html

http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/2009/06/stopped-out-now-wait-and-watch.html

Stocks to watchout for :

Bank of Baroda after giving a false breakout at 460 a day back is now back to testing 410-430 support levels. Many stocks have not seen follow up buying or selling.

So would prefer to take no stock calls for next 2 sessions. If taking short term trades take lesser volumes and keep strict stoplosses.

WEIRD ObSERVATION :

BSE supposed to have one of the very good and robust system had another technical snag after the one noticed on ckt day !

Suddenly all A - B group stocks had a circuit filter of 20% instead of 5% ... T2T stocks Z grp stocks all had a field day with 20% freeze which might have trapped a few traders in the morning. By mid -day the snag was rectified with filters being re-imposed !! .....

Could there have been another solution ? Simply put the exchange needs to pull up their systems and improve !!

Making no efforts to post the details ...

A small article posted by Palak Shah on Business Standard describes what happened.

Nearly 80 stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) today witnessed an unusual price movement of up to 20 per cent. Belonging to ‘S’ and ‘Z’ categories and the trade-to-trade group, these scrips normally attract 5 per cent circuit breakers.

Similarly, Transcrop International Ltd, a ‘B’ group scrip, fell 30.14 per cent today to close at Rs 33.15. Stocks in the ‘B’ group normally attract a maximum circuit breaker of 20 per cent on BSE. Even an ‘A’ group stock, Hindustan Copper, which generated a massive volume of 1.56 lakh shares today, recorded a high of Rs 278 against its upper circuit of Rs 245.95.

Apart from this, the counter of Assam Tea Company, a ‘B’ group stock, witnessed a 1.38-crore block deal at Rs 77 even though the share was being traded at around Rs 16. The block deal was later reversed by BSE.

Gramac Infrastructure Equipment and Projects, Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd, National Fertilizers Ltd, Ahluwalia Contractors and Asian Oil were other ‘B’ group stocks that recorded prices higher than the circuit breakers on huge volumes.

According to market players, BSE did not issue any clarification during the day, nor did the exchange halt trading in these counters to examine the problem.

Lesser known stocks such as Empower Industries India Ltd, Bhagyashree Leasing & Finance, Sturdy Industries, Rama Phosphates, RAS Extrusions, United Drilling, Women Networks and Integra Capital Ltd emerged as the top gainers today with a 20 per cent rise. Strangely, the volume in some of these stocks was as low as 100 shares.

When contacted, a senior BSE official said there was a ‘technical snag’ and trading would resume tomorrow with normal circuit breakers. BSE, however, did not answer an email query asking it about the technical error and how it happened.

Market sources said that some brokers were planning to approach legal experts to present a case before market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). Out of the 80 scrips, 30 rose over 10 per cent and 12 fell more than 10 per cent, triggering stop-loss of share traders. Brokers were also asking for additional margins from clients as these erroneous trades had caused them huge losses.

The problem, say experts, is that when the exchange does not reverse ‘illogical or artificial trades’, the price of a particular stock, which is part of this error, remains at a level that it could have never touched in the near future. Proper action and withdrawal of all such trades are necessary, they say.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/80-stocks-witness-unusual-spike-bse-blames-\technical-snag\/362759/

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION MUMBAI

Scheduled for July 18-19 ( tentatively )

Interested candidates mail to analyseindia@gmail.com or call Nooresh 09819225396

Best Regards,

Nooresh

Nothing conclusive on either side .... Keep positions light and Watch

HP some speculative buying took place in futures at 2 pm it seems. even BPCL moved up from 425 to 460 in the day with volumes inching up in the end ... Just an observation can be totally wrong and stocks might have been seeing such moves usually !

Sensex Technical View :

Nothing conclusive is happening in the index. Although the small range bound moves are moving as per technical levels on extreme short term charts - hourly or daily. A small parallel channel support was not broken and we saw an intra day recovery.

The doji star formation seen a day back is not seeing follow up selling so the pattern is still not effected.

Simpler analysis tells us to remain on lighter positions in short term as external reasons like budget may impact more.

14200-14000 is an important support which if broken could lead to follow up selling. So traders should keep a stoploss of 14k for all short term positions and stay on lighter side.

On the upside 14900-15100 remains an important resistance. Earlier we did take long positions before the election in specific stocks and reaped gains !! but this time i would prefer to wait and watch !!

FOR DETAILED TECH ViEW covered yesterday click here

Stocks to watchout for :

yesterday had mentioned about support and ranges for DLF , TATa Steel

DLF low 305 ! Tata Steel 381. So the range has still been maintained !

DLF 345 resistance on upside and Tata Steel resistance at 415. only a sustained move on above levels could take it higher or may stay range bound.

Many index based stocks are placed similarly .

SBI if stays above 1790-1800 can go upto 1840/1900.Support around 1720-1730 zone.

MARICO

Another defensive stock on the radar after excellent moves on colgate ( was sent to clients ), Cipla, HUL , Dabur , Cadilla ,ITC , Nestle all gave excellent returns in the short term.

Partial exposure can be taken at 72 with a stop of 68 tgt 79-85 +. Only to give stability to portfolio and shift some part of high risk stocks to this one !! ... Not a traders pick

GSPL

Another range bound move 47-52.5 . Buy above 52.5 stop of 51.6 tgt 55 /58 and sell below 47.

The direct link for for the recording is given below: So take ur headphones and check it.

http://www.wiziq.com/tutorsession/detail.aspx?id=A7AACFF5C64D4421AD9BDEFF84C9D413

In the next one week we are planning to launch a lot of new schemes, courses and more which would suit different sets of traders/investors/analysts. Henceforth please mail in your doubts/queries to analyseindia@gmail.com

People who would like to be updated via sms /email about further schemes courses planned in their city mail to analyseindia@gmail.com

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

Stopped out !! ... Now wait and watch

Sensex Technical View :

There is a lot of technical speculation amongst market-men and analysts.

-- > Some are speculating a possible head and shoulders in the making. But a HnS pattern is a reactive pattern which doesnt come into picture till the neckline is not broken. Otherwise every other pattern may seem a HnS ! As of now one needs to wait for a clean breakdown below 14k levels shown by the red line on closing basis.

-- > Such a breakdown below the red line would point to a possible gap filling also.Supports are placed at 13500/12300.

-- > The other possibility is the index holds above 14k and moves back creating a high abov 15600 which could be closer to 16050-16200 also.

-- > Any upmove beyond 16200 on closing basis would mean a highly euphoric move ! ... Ideally a move to 16k should be used to again generate cash.

Conclusions :

-- > The view was to deploy some cash at 14k-14.3k which has given small returns but keep a strict stoploss of 13800-14k. If stays below get back to cash again.

-- > Any move to 16050-16200 would be more stock specific and investors should also look profits if such a scenario opens up.

-- > As of now stopped out on short term trades so wait and watch for now ! Volatility will be high as external voices may impact more.

Stocks to watchout for :

The unexpected dip today has hit quite a few stoplosses in the near term. BOB ,Welspun stop hit after a move in morning which did not get follow up buying. Strides, Patni prefer to exit and just watch for now.

Dabur,Nestle defensive pick moving sharply as expected. Keeping a stable portfolio helps:)

No stock calls for now as volatility may hit on but just a few technical levels on specific stocks.

DLF

Stock is seeing support around 300-305 range in the last few weeks. closing below those levels could lead to selling pressure taking it to 270-285 also.

Shriram Transport

Generally an illiquid counter has seen good volume built up. Sustained move above 315 needed to trigger further upmove to 350+.

Suzlon

Support around 95-99 zone which should hold up for now. Risky traders can buy in that range with 3 % stop tgt 10%

Tata Steel

Short term range of 380-415. Any move below 378 could lead to 360 similarly above 415 could tgt 440.

Do your own research and take exposures with a strict stoploss as volatility is got to increase in coming days. Reduce trading volumes !

In the next one week we are planning to launch a lot of new schemes, courses and more which would suit different sets of traders/investors/analysts. Henceforth please mail in your doubts/queries to analyseindia@gmail.com

People who would like to be updated via sms /email about further schemes courses planned in their city mail to analyseindia@gmail.com

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Nooresh

09819225396

Time to be stock specific !

Sensex Technical View :

The index has done the minimum bounce to the zone of 14900-15100 which is 61% of the current fall from 15600 to 14k.

Now the next thing to watch is whether 15.6k is taken of and we go to 16k-16.2k or not !!!

On the down side 14500 is a good support for the short term. So next 2-3 weeks would be yet again a decider to find the next move ! Continue to be stock specific as action may soon shift to the broader market then on the index

Stocks to watchout for :

Sugars did a small day move today and may continue in days to come with lots of volatility .. Cadilla time to get out and get into another defensive like Marico or Nestle. Strides 145 now stop.

Bank Of Baroda

410 to 456 has been the rough range for the stock and seems this banking stock may move up in short term to 500 also if crosses 458. Buy above 458 stop of 446 tgt 480/510. or buy on dips stop of 428.

Welspun Guj till above 200-205 could give a move to 230 . Garware Wall rope another investment stock has been seeing large volumes of late. Long term investors can look to take small qty and wait for dips.

Rishab Dev Cables - newlisting will it see the fate like many other newlisting did move up by 30-50% ?? by speculative interest ... The market buzz says so ... Rest take ur call the stock can go anywhere

Weird observations :

Stock called Ushdev international - trades exactly 50k shares every day :P with 1 % delivery ... Is the company listed for different reasons :P

521070 Alok Industries Ltd Cholamandalam DBS Finance Ltd (Pledgee) 27/06/2009 Acq 5989500 3.04 29800000 15.13

Alok Industries shares pledged ? What impact no idea but this is a bulk deal which tells you which company pledged shares ....

522259 Kalindee Rail Nirman (Engineers) Ltd T Rowe Price New Asia Fund 05/06/2009 S 403174 3.59 520726 4.64

Kalindee rail a budget bet .... FII sold some time back 10 % lower but who bought ???

KZ leasing

Oct 08 price 15

March 09 price 75

June 09 price 10

What does the stock do no idea ... but moved up from 10 to 75 and back to 10 :P .... there is an opposite bull market in some stock always ...

Zigma Software was 2 rs in April is now 22 rs :P ... turnaround or fool around

Well will keep this session coming when there is nothing much to observe or pass time with :P

COMMODITY TRADERS:

Just happened to be back in touch with an old friend and analyst who is now totally into commodities where i never like to be ( i love my sleep at times ).

He puts up his views on http://askchirag.blogspot.com

Yahoo id - chiragkb5

Would be a good short term technical view point for commodities. He does have lot of personalized services. So commodity traders can check him out ! .... Check the site or get in touch with him.

Yes dont get back to me on how commodities or chirags trade works coz i dont understand commodities :P as such apart from a few updates for academic reasons.

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

Above 14700... Need to see whether 15600 is conquered or not.

Sensex Technical View :

Momentum line holds yet again !!

Sensex has taken a smart move from 14k levels and now is back to 14700 +. The move has been on expected lines and as has been discussed extensively in the webinar we need to watch whether 15600 is taken over or not in next few weeks.

In previous testing of the momentum line the Sensex has bounced back sharply above the recent highs.

So resistances to look for are 14900-15100 and then 15600. A move above 15600 would keep the pattern intact and target 16200 or more.

As was mentioned in last few sessions to deploy some cash at 14k-14.3k in stock specific with a stop of 13800. The view remains same to keep on trailing and watch for recent highs are broken to go for more gains or the trendline breaks to dump the stocks.

Stocks to watchout for :

Sugar stocks have continued to remain strong in the last few months and have been consolidating for past few weeks. Strong hearted traders can either buy with a stop given on dips or buy in momentum for quick trades. Risk is lil high as all are very volatile.

Balrampur stop 98 momentum above 112.5.

Triveni Engg 95 momentum above 106.

Renuka stop 132 momentum above 153.

Bajaj Hind stop 190 momentum above 223.

Nestle is yet another defensive stock which can move up in the short run after cadilla.Buy small qty on dips to give stability to the portfolio.

Strides Arcolab

Increasing volumes seen and making a nice accumulation pattern. Can take small exposure with a stop of 138 . Momentum could be seen abov 153-155 zone in short term targetting 165-180.

Sunday Thoughts :

Quick actions/decisions/discipline or inactivity with discipline which makes wealth and not superior thinking in markets.

The above line is one of the apt ones to describe a standard scenario in markets generally or even in last one year or so. I would put them into 3 sets of investor/trader groups.

An active investor with discipline and technical bias would have sold investments at 16-15k k in May and re-entered investments at 10k in April again ! . In between traded all through the bear rallies and dumps. Would now look to exit at 15-16k again and then keep trading al through.

All the above moves may not have been exactly timed but would have given a very good edge with optimized returns with lower risk. The portfolio would be largely positive even if he started at 20k !!

At the same time some long term investor stuck at 20k would have got on to a 3 times from bottom still way back from the good old days. So inactivity would have got him back to a better place then Oct/March. These section may have accumulated wealth through last few years/decades so more insulated !!

The worst placed is the over-pondering over-confused and a delayed action making investor who sold aat 12k and then at 9k waiting to take all back at 6k and is was watching till 14k with a portfolio of DEPLETED cash !! ..............When would he come back in at 16k/18k well thats when the top two groups would be thinking cautiously....

So where are you placed ????

Just a few thoughts to ponder on .............

WEBINAR RECORDING AVAILABLE

Quite a few people could'nt attend the Webinar on Technical Analysis on last Sunday - 21st June. We also received requests from the attendees, that they would be glad to brush up the session once again.

The direct link for for the recording is given below: So take ur headphones and check it.

http://www.wiziq.com/tutorsession/detail.aspx?id=A7AACFF5C64D4421AD9BDEFF84C9D413

Go through it and send in a detailed feedback to analyseindia@gmail.com. This was a trial run so later we can come up with more and better interactive webinars.

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

14700-14000 range needs to be broken for any conclusive move.

Sensex Technical View :

- > As was mentioned in the webinar as well as in previous updates at 15.5k that index may test the momentum line. The sensex has tested the line couple of times in last few sessions.

- > The range for now is 14000-14700. In the next couple of weeks one can expect a breakout of the same which can lead to a conclusive move on either side. So wait and watch for a move. Deploy some cash but with a strict stop of 13900 or be very stock specific with strict stops.

- > On the medium term front the gap support of 13500 is an important support. On the upside 14900/15100 which is Circuit day top as well as 15100 which is 61% of current downmove. So a move beyond this range would change the trend significantly.

Simply put continue to be stock specific and stay strict with stops and discipline. There would be many opportunities on trading as well as investment side.

In the last updates at 15.5k to shift to defensives like Cipla, ITC , Dabur , Cadilla which have been in positive territory since then.

Stocks to watchout for :

Cadilla has moved up from 340s to 370s hold for 390/420. tata motors,gdl stopped out. IDBI stop 108.

Patni Computers

Stock is looking good on daily charts Buy on dips with a stop of 240 . Momentum above 270 may tgt 300 +.

Strides Arcolab

Nice volumes traded in the last few weeks. The stock has been ranged 154-135 in the near term. Buy around 142 stop of 135 or above 154 for a tgt of 170-190 in short term. Highly volatile stock so take small exposure and keep the risk in mind.

WEBINAR RECORDING AVAILABLE

Quite a few people could'nt attend the Webinar on Technical Analysis on last Sunday - 21st June. We also received requests from the attendees, that they would be glad to brush up the session once again.

The direct link for for the recording is given below: So take ur headphones and check it.

http://www.wiziq.com/tutorsession/detail.aspx?id=A7AACFF5C64D4421AD9BDEFF84C9D413

Go through it and send in a detailed feedback to analyseindia@gmail.com. This was a trial run so later we can come up with more and better interactive webinars.

For ADVISORY SERVICES click here--http://nooreshtech.co.in/noor/index.php?q=content/subscription-details

Soon we would be coming out with more new schemes in coming month.

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

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Crude, Gold and Dow Jones Update

Crude Current View :

The last update was around 54 giving a target of 68 in short term. The move has almost achieved the cup and handle target ( 34-54 =20 dollars ) ( 54+ 20 = 74 )

It would be difficult for crude to cross 75-78. A move beyond 78 would be very surprising and could actually lead to a further pull up though i dont expect it in the near future.

http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/2009/05/crude-can-it-move-beyond-54.html For last update.

Chart posted below.
Dow Jones :

After moving up in a steady up channel the upmove seems to have stalled and now may find a range between 8200-8600.

A move on either side could decide the next trend.

Gold Technical view :

Gold seems may stay ranged in 905-965 for the near term. Above 945 may see aa 20-30 $ move in short term.

Its been quite a long time since i updated on Crude, Gold and Dow.I dont update much on the above indices or commodities as these instruments are not what i advise on neither do have many readers trading the same.

The next update would be when i see a major change on the above charts.

WEBINAR RECORDING AVAILABLE

Quite a few people could'nt attend the Webinar on Technical Analysis on last Sunday - 21st June. We also received requests from the attendees, that they would be glad to brush up the session once again.

The direct link for for the recording is given below: So take ur headphones and check it.

http://www.wiziq.com/tutorsession/detail.aspx?id=A7AACFF5C64D4421AD9BDEFF84C9D413

Go through it and send in a detailed feedback to analyseindia@gmail.com. This was a trial run so later we can come up with more and better interactive webinars.

For ADVISORY SERVICES click here--http://nooreshtech.co.in/noor/index.php?q=content/subscription-details

Soon we would be coming out with more new schemes in coming month.

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

noorrock2002@gmail.com

14650-14700 for now a good resistance....

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex managed to move up slowly from lower levels but still not convincing enough. Till 14k holds one can expect a bounce to 14650/14900 in short term. Continue to wait and watch and be stock specific with strict stops.

Stocks to watchout for :

NTPC gave a smart move, IDBI and GDL trying to breakout buy on dips. Tata Motors stop 345-347.

Saksoft, Classic Diamonds of the stocks discussed has not performed but keep exposures low was said before. Still the same view remains fundamentally decent but one will need patience and risk apetite.

Insecticides India suggested at 55-60 has moved upto 72 ca n now look to book at 75-80 to reduce acquisition cost and stay invested for long term.

No stock picks for the day as lot of our trades are in the day only ( Client trades - NTPC 191 to 200, JP associated 193 to 210, GDL 107 to 115 ) .

WEBINAR RECORDING AVAILABLE

Quite a few people could'nt attend the Webinar on Technical Analysis on last Sunday - 21st June. We also received requests from the attendees, that they would be glad to brush up the session once again.

The direct link for for the recording is given below:

http://www.wiziq.com/tutorsession/detail.aspx?id=A7AACFF5C64D4421AD9BDEFF84C9D413

Go through it and send in a detailed feedback to analyseindia@gmail.com. This was a trial run so later we can come up with more and better interactive webinars.

Best Regards,

Nooresh

14k holds up ... Can we see some short covering...

Sensex Technical View :

As one can see from the chart Sensex has finally touched the momentum line at 14k and staged a small intra-day recovery.

The view earlier was to generate cash at 15.5k to a large extent. One can now look to deploy some amount of cash at 14.1k-14.3k with a strict stoploss of 13800 on closing basis to take a bounce trade to 14900-15100.So its a trading bet with investment portfolio. As Sensex if breaks 13800 it may well head to 12700 also.

Volatility will remain unusually high with expiry and other external events in coming days.

Stocks to watchout for :

Reliance inds was mentioned about 1900 being 38% retracement and the stock could stage a pullback from 1850-1900 band. It did see a recovery to 2000 +.The upmove would face stiff resistance at 2070/2125 range.

NTPC keep a trailing stop of 188 and hold for 202/212. HDFC Bank dint give much of a trading chance with gap down.

IDBI

The stock has seen huge volumes in the last 1 month and is showing lot of strength. The stock if crosses 112-114 could even head up to 130.Keep a stop of 106 on triggering of trade.There is a lot of market buzz on the stock so will be volatile

Tata Motors buy above 355 stop of 347 tgt 364/375 in the day.

Gateway Distriparks ( earlier reco at 67 ) has been consolidating at a higher range of 95-110 and seems to be setting up for a breakout. Buy around 104 stop of 97 tgt 112/125 in short term.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION DELHI

JULY 4-5

Mail to noorrock2002@gmail.com or call 09819225396 Nooresh to confirm your seat/queries / details.

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

Sensex 14k momentum line becomes important now

Sensex Technical View :

The volatility in the index has definitely left a lot of us confused and that would continue in weeks to come with lot many external triggers namely expiry this week followed by Budget in July 1st week.

Technically some things are more clear now.

• Index if stays above the momentum line which is roughly around 14k on closing basis there could be a bounce back in the short term which can also be termed a pre-budget rally.
• Index if stays below 14k on closing basis opens up to the gap area of 13500 -12900 which can also be a post-budget correction or global meltdown.
• So investors can accordingly position themselves and do keep a decent amount of cash in portfolio as suggested at 15.5k.
• Traders need to keep trading volumes low as there could be more stop hits with high volatility so good risk management may help.

Stocks to watchout for :

NTPC

The stock has its 200 dema around 185 levels and the stock has heavily from 230 levels. Investors/traders can buy with a stop of 185 on closing basis and a target of 202/212.

Reliance Inds

The chart was earlier posted about how a move below 2145-2160 would turn the tide for the index. Reliance is now arnd 1950. The next important support is around 1850. The 38 % retracement of the entire upmove comes to 1900. So one can expect the stock to manage a pullback from the ones of 1850-1900. Any move below 1850 would take the stock to 1680-1750.

HDFC Bank

The stock has seen no meaning ful correction since October and the trend still remains strong. Currently in the range of 1500-1580. Move below 1490 or 1600 could give a quick 40-80 bucks move to traders on either side.

WEBINAR RECORDING AVAILABLE

Quite a few people could'nt attend the Webinar on Technical Analysis on last Sunday - 21st June. We also received requests from the attendees, that they would be glad to brush up the session once again.

The direct link for for the recording is given below:

http://www.wiziq.com/tutorsession/detail.aspx?id=A7AACFF5C64D4421AD9BDEFF84C9D413

Go through it and send in a detailed feedback to analyseindia@gmail.com. This was a trial run so later we can come up with more and better interactive webinars.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION

( the course is meant to make you independent and be able to analyse in the simple manner as i do.)

DELHI JULY 4-5.

Interested participants can contact as early as possible to confirm your seat - 09819225396.

Regards,

Nooresh

Sensex Technical View :

- > This is in continuation of the previous chart which i had posted about the momentum line and ever since 8k-10k and this trend line has not been broken. So simply put the medium term trend remains up as of now.

- > Its been observed in the last few months that after hitting the momentum line the index has crossed the recent highs and also with a sharper move.

- > So we need to see how it pans out from 13800-14200. The index can give a good pullback to 14900-15100 also but the most important thing to note is whether it is able to cross 15600 or not and continue with the pattern.

- > If it does then we may also head to 16050-16200. If it doesnt then one needs to be very cautious and skeptical in the short term.

- > There is more to discuss did quite a bit of it in the webinar on the above chart. Little tired on sunday for now so in simpler terms the view remains to keep a short term view and trade strict with discipline.

We had a 1 hr -1hr 15 mins simple webinar today.

Register yourself on www.wiziq.com and then click the link below to watch the recording.

VIEW RECORDING by clicking here.

Do send us your feedback about the same on analyseindia@gmail.com . This was a first trial run so needs lot of improvement.

Stocks to watchout for :

ITC

The stock was covered earlier at 185 and did give a small move to 200. Yet again the stock is well placed in a range. If the stock starts staying above it could ove the defensive upmove like HUL and Cipla ( both were covered some time back). Investors can add on dips with 180 stop. Traders look for a move beyond.

Will just paste yesterdays write-up as nothing much apart from extreme short term trades which are initiated in the day ( sent to clients ).

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION

( the course is meant to make you independent and be able to analyse in the simple manner as i do.)

DELHI JULY 4-5.

Interested participants can contact as early as possible to confirm your seat - 09819225396.

For ADVISORY SERVICES click here--http://nooreshtech.co.in/noor/index.php?q=content/subscription-details

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

noorrock2002@gmail.com

Investors continue to stick to the cash generated... Re-shuffling fine.

Sensex Technical View :

Ever since June 10th its been stated again and again about a possibility of a correction from 15500 and here we are close to 14k in no time.

On the upside 14630/14930 would be a good resistance for now.

Momentum trendline is now around 13900 and gap support 13500.

Continue to trade for extreme short term and be quick as moves would be choppy. Check the 5 min Nifty chart posted below

Stocks to watchout for :

IDBI

The stock has seen huge volumes in the last 1 month and is showing lot of strength. The stock if crosses 112-114 could even head up to 130.Keep a stop of 106 on triggering of trade.There is a lot of market buzz on the stock so will be volatile.

Tata Communication

The stock has seen multiple bottoms around 460 and good channel support around 450. The stock can give a bounce from here. Take your own call.

GLENMARK

The stock can be looked with a long term view by taking 15-25% exposure at current levels and then pyramid the position.Downside could be 135/160. So accordingly spread your buying. For a guide check LnT example.

Trading positions of late are only for the day and depending on market conditions so not mentioning any trades for now.

WEBINAR on Why to use Technical Analysis and a brief view of Sensex and other indices.

Sunday 21 June

Time 12 pm to 1 pm.

Register on www.wiziq.com

mail to noorrock2002@gmail.com and analyseindia@gmail.com

Headphone/Mike alongwith a broadband connection.

This is the first time i am trying this mode of communication so lets c how it goes.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION DELHI

JULY 4-5

Mail to noorrock2002@gmail.com or call 09819225396 Nooresh to confirm your seat/queries / details.

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

Nifty Futures 5 min chart ...

Nifty shows a possibility to bounce back to the upper channel at least ... Lets c how it pans out tomorrow.

Regards,

Nooresh

Sensex loses 1000 points from the top ...Hold on to cash.

Sensex Technical View :

The index has now lost 1000 points from the high and has just hit below 14500 support levels which opens up more downside possibilities. A dead bounce ( good possibility ) should not go much above 14800-14950 for now. A move above 15300 would now negate bearish implications.

The momentum line which we have been looking at every since 8k-9k levels now comes to 13900 for the week. Gap support at 13500. So it would be a healthy move if index tests this zones in weeks to come.

The view to generate cash was mentioned clearly alongwith a detailed technical and strategy ( reduce volumes, volatility would increase, shift to defensives ) .

DO CLICK HERE AND READ

Hope readers have benefitted by following the discipline. Continue to conserve the profits accumulated in last 3 mths.

Stocks to watchout for :

Cadilla seems to be trying to breakout. Investors can look to take small exposures at current levels. Great Offshore hold. Insecticidies india investment pick.

RIL has broken down as expected and shud now find support arnd 1975/1850 in short term.

Castrol looks an excellent breakout on weekly charts. Buy on dips. chart posted below. Also Nagarjuna and RCAP chart and view posted. CLICK HERE

RCOM below 300 and RCAP below 895 could see more selling pressure and lose 5-7% quickly. Quick traders can keep a watch.

WEBINAR on Why to use Technical Analysis and a brief view of Sensex and other indices.

Sunday 21 June

Time 12 pm to 1 pm.

Register on www.wiziq.com

mail to noorrock2002@gmail.com and analyseindia@gmail.com

Headphone/Mike alongwith a broadband connection.

This is the first time i am trying this mode of communication so lets c how it goes.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION DELHI

JULY 4-5

Mail to noorrock2002@gmail.com or call 09819225396 Nooresh to confirm your seat/queries / details.

Best Regards,

Nooresh

09819225396

MoneyVidya- A nice web site

Introducing a good website which i came across.

Just a brief on the same.

MoneyVidya.com is an online community where anybody can share stock recommendations (stock picks). Its differentiator from standard message boards and other social investing sites is its superior Investor Rating System, which rates each member (on a 5 star scale) based the performance of past picks that the member has shared with the community. Since the rating takes into account the past performance rather than the user feedback, it ceases to be a popularity contest, which many social networks eventually turn out to be.

On MoneyVidya.com you can:

• Make stock picks and become a top member
• Get paid for being highly rated and providing recommendations (coming soon)
• Find and profit from picks which match your personal investment style
• Discuss stocks, sectors and investment strategies with friends and top rated members through forums and chat, created your own polls, and read and write blogs.

Register yourself and do give your feedback on the site.

Regards,

Nooresh

Charts and View...

Best Regards