Readers are invited to attend the seminar as well as can put the invitation across to friends,colleagues.Regards,
Nooresh
Friday, November 13, 2009
Sensex the next Multibagger ... a technical view... Pune 21st November
Readers are invited to attend the seminar as well as can put the invitation across to friends,colleagues.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Time to be stock specific ....
Sensex Technical View :
The view remains the same expect a range bound move . Lower side supports 16350-16450 whereas upside resistance 16900 levels.
Till index remains in this range expect stock specific movements to continue.
Stocks to watchout :
Sun Pharma buy around 1420 with a stop of 1390 tgt 1500-1540 or above 1460.
FSL seems to be giving a fresh breakout. Buy if stays above 38.5 stop of 36.5 tgt 43-45 in near term.
SMALL CAP FoR MEDIUM TO LONG TeRm
RISHI LASER ,Navneet Publications,LLOYD Elec.
Fundamental analysis can be done before taking a long term call on above.
Also i would like to invite fundamental analysts who have a small synopsis on any stock with long term view can mail the same to us at analyseindia@gmail.com . We would like to post the same on this blog.
CMC LTD and GEOMETRIC software look good on short term charts. Above 1340 and 51 closing.
In the feedbacks have received about quarterly reports or more reviews. I would invite any of the readers to volunteer to do the same by making a spreadsheet or word doc which can be shared on google docs.
NEW ANNOUNCEMENT :
Wealth Management for Investors.
After increasing the size of our team its finally become possible to come out with a product for investors with exposure to equities in the range of 10 lakhs or more. Investors looking for a conservative way of managing money in a professional manner may get in touch as soon as possible.
For more details call Nooresh 09819225396 ( after market hours )
Thereafter all the execution details would be taken care of by our team.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION HYDERABAD /BANGLORE/DELHI
We have a few interested people and if there is a group of 8 or more can schedule a session in these cities. So if you want to learn technical analysis and become independent mail to analyseindia@gmail.com
Nooresh
www.analyseindia.com
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Sensex Pullback or Upmove !! Gains is what matters !!
YET AGAIN A BEFORE AND AFTER ADVERTISEMENT !!!!!
AFTER - Current position
If you see above Sensex has yet again followed the same route as we were looking at. I too get surprised by such pin point accuracy with Technical Analysis. But as a techie ( I never ask Why is the market going the way it is seen on Charts )
As a technical analyst i m never supposed to ask WHY but look for WHAT - ( that constituted the 20 min video it was all about What )
Yet another chart which i have posted is about a possible Inverted Head And Shoulders Pattern being completed with a Neckline re-test. If we do believe this pattern then the implications could be very very bullish in the next few quarters. We would definitely review it in due course of time.
In the short term Sensex should ideally face resistance at 16850 zone. Although some people may also look towards 80% retracement as a level which comes to 17k odd. But for us its simpler we bought at 15.5k and booking now half or more. The view from here on should be extremely stock specific as we may continue to see some stocks over perform in near term.
People who bought at lows will call it a Upmove or a RALLY . People who could not use it and are stuck in Shorts will call it a PULLBACK !!! ... But what does matter in the end is whether u gained out of it or not.
Stocks to watchout for :
Neyvyeli Lignite has given an excellent breakout ( Client call at 145 booked half or more till 160 ) . It seems this stock could be next on the disinvestment or something coming up. Watchout to re-enter on declines to 148-152 with a stop of 143.
Indian Hotels has given a breakout.Maintain a stoploss of 82 and hold for 95-105 in near term.Lloyds Electric has also given a breakout. Can take partial exposure in dips to 54.5-56 stop of 52 tgt 65 +.
Ranbaxy can give a further move if crosses 425. Can target 450 in near term.
Kesar Ent and EID Parry look interesting with a medium term view as technically seem to have broken out in near term. Low volumes stock and difficult to trade but take your own call. Can give 20-25% appreciation over 3-5 mths.
Sun Pharma buy around 1420 with a stop of 1390 tgt 1500-1540 or above 1460.
TCS buy around 640-644 stop of 635 tgt 655-665 in 1-3 sessions. (Disclosure : Client call already given at 640 )
NEW ANNOUNCEMENT :
Wealth Management for Investors.
After increasing the size of our team its finally become possible to come out with a product for investors with exposure to equities in the range of 10 lakhs or more. Investors looking for a conservative way of managing money in a professional manner may get in touch as soon as possible.
For more details call Nooresh 09819225396 ( after market hours )
Thereafter all the execution details would be taken care of by our team.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION HYDERABAD /BANGLORE/DELHI
We have a few interested people and if there is a group of 8 or more can schedule a session in these cities. So if you want to learn technical analysis and become independent mail to analyseindia@gmail.com
Nooresh
www.analyseindia.com
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Book some profits - If you bought on our BUY CALL AT 15.5k !
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex turned around superbly from our zone of 15300-15500 by making a low of 15330 which is BANG ON !!!
Index is up 1200 odd points since the low which is at least a clean 1000 point move up for readers who used our advice to buy in the range of 15.3-15.5k.
Also at the same time we had mentioned to increase cash at 17k which was advised to re-deploy at 15.9k - 15.3k !!!
EXCERPTS from POST - VIDEO ANALYSIS suggesting 15300-15500 should hold.
Investors were advised to book profits and generate cash above 16500 and 17200 should now look to redeploy cash slowly below 15900 to 15500 zone.
Sensex may now face resistance at 16660 which is 61% of the current downmove. Although i would expect significant resistance to come in around 16850 mark from where the indices gave a short term breakdown.
So investors who bought in dips should take part of the profits at 16650-16850 and be ready to re-enter on dips to 16k or lower or if it crosses 17200 on closing basis.
Review :
Going through the feedback ( not able to read through thoroughly ) i noticed that some readers have asked for stock specific reviews or more. Its very difficult to give a review on all stocks discussed as i do have to take care of the ADVISoRY SERVICE for clients and lot more of our professional interests through Analyse India.
I would request if any of the readers could volunteer to do the same and make a weekly review or consolidation of the posts which could help other readers.
Bank Of India book profits , Hold on to EIH ltd. Ranbaxy trail to 400. PTC stop 107.
Rest few technical charts posted below.
NEW ANNOUNCEMENT :
Wealth Management for Investors.
After increasing the size of our team its finally become possible to come out with a product for investors with exposure to equities in the range of 10 lakhs or more. Investors looking for a conservative way of managing money in a professional manner may get in touch as soon as possible.
For more details call Nooresh 09819225396 ( after market hours )
Thereafter all the execution details would be taken care of by our team.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION HYDERABAD /BANGLORE
We have a few interested people and if there is a group of 8 or more can schedule a session in these cities. So if you want to learn technical analysis and become independent mail to analyseindia@gmail.com
Best Regards,
Nooresh
Analyse India - www.analyseindia.com
09819225396 ( after mkt hours )
noorrock2002@gmail.com meraninooresh@yahoo.com
Monday, November 09, 2009
Indian Hotels,Plethico Pharma,Lloyds Electric and Grasim Technical View.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
Saturday, November 07, 2009
Survey -- Readers of Nooreshtech -- Please do fill !
Please fill all the fields. Take some time out :)
regards,
Nooresh
Friday, November 06, 2009
Technical Analysis and Art not Rocket Science !
Before i get into the daily post i would like to explain the title line. Technical analysis is an art which requires lots of observations and above all chucking of the internal human bias !! So one may see opposite views from many techies as with a couple of observations and personal bias there is whole lot of justification.
There are only two ways to use technical analysis ---
Learn it from a experienced fella and practice yourself to become independent.
Take professional advice from an analyst who has been consistent for a long period of time.
So start finding yourself someone who can help you in the above two ways. For the above same i would push up our own team though :) www.analyseindia.com
Sensex technical View :
Sensex may face resistance around 16250/16400 for the day. A move above 16600 on closing basis will see lot many analysts sit up and notice the internal strength of the market.
Investors/traders who used our analysis to put in cash at 15500 should look to book partial profits now to reduce the risk exposure and make it comfortable to ride the further moves.
Expect volatility to remain high in the next 1-2 weeks with a tight range being formed. Difficult to call a range but could be 15600-16600 before the market takes a call to find the direction.
Stocks to watchout for :
PTC India has given a breakout and should be headed to 125 + in near term. Keep a stoploss of 105.
Ranbaxy could give a good move on closing above 405. Buy on declines with a stop of 380.
Tata Power buy for a bounce to 1370-1400 with a stop of 1300.
Paramount Communications looks interesting even on a simple study of fundamentals. High risk investors can look to buy at current levels with a target of 18-25 over the next 6 mths. Stoploss 11 closing basis.
Grasim buy above 2260 with a stop of 2200 tgt 2350.
NEW ANNOUNCEMENT :
Wealth Management for Investors.
After increasing the size of our team its finally become possible to come out with a product for investors with exposure to equities in the range of 10 lakhs or more. Investors looking for a conservative way of managing money in a professional manner may get in touch as soon as possible.
For more details call Nooresh 09819225396 ( after market hours )
Thereafter all the execution details would be taken care of by our team.
SENSEX the next Multibagger ....a technical view - Analyse India Seminar
Tentatively scheduled - 15 or 21st November PUNE !!! . Would like to know if there are people interested so can confirm the schedule by weekend. Please mail to analyseindia@gmail.com to confirm or call Asif 09833666151.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Video Analysis at 15300-15500 !! Do check it out
A MUST VIEW VidEO _----- Effectiveness of simple technical analysis.
If you cant listen to the 20 min video then just go through the charts posted above ....
SENSEX the next Multibagger ....a technical view - Analyse India Seminar
Tentatively scheduled - 15 November PUNE !!! . Would like to know if there are people interested so can confirm the schedule by weekend. Please mail to analyseindia@gmail.com to confirm or call Asif 09833666151.
More updates in the morning ... Little sleepy today
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
www.analyseindia.com ( For our exclusive services )
Sensex August to October !! Bang on !
August 23 --- Sensex 15240
A detailed view on the rising wedge pattern in which one would expect 16500 to be crossed. See the green box target zone.
September 16 - Sensex 16677
Bang on the chart looked like an advertisement like BEFORE and AFTER !!!
Sensex crossed 16700 and had given the view to start being cautious and would be highly uncomfortable above 17200 if goes without a dip !!
After this every post mentioned about the discomfort above 17k and consistent view was to take some profits home, increase cash. Lots and lots of caution signals given ever since then.
October 27 - Sensex 16353
Breakdown seen from short term trendline. This gave a target of 15500 which was explained with the chart and calculation.
Sensex reached the levels of 15500 in quick time.
November 02 - Sensex 15900
Detailed Video analysis !!! explaining how 15300-15500 band is important and clearly suggested that such a band would hold up and investors can now slowly start deploying cash pulled out at 17k !! For the record we did see a pull up to 15900 in a day itself giving quick gains to people who used the analysis.
The view remains the same. Bullish till its above the 15k-15.5k mark on weekly closing basis.
Optimization of resources.
Hope readers were able to benefit from the analysis in the last few months as well as for 3 yrs. I started regular blogging from October 2006 !!!! ever since then there have been 20-50 posts a month and daily one nearly.
Would like to get more comments/views on the blog or feedback be mailed to noorrock2002@gmail.com.
SENSEX the next Multibagger ....a technical view - Analyse India Seminar
Tentatively scheduled - 15 November PUNE !!! . Would like to know if there are people interested so can confirm the schedule by weekend. Please mail to analyseindia@gmail.com to confirm or call Asif 09833666151.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
www.analyseindia.com ( For our exclusive services )
Bounce from 15300-15500 !! As suggested.
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex has bounced back from the zone of 15300-15500 by making a low of 15330. The current close at 15900 would have given traders good gains if used the detailed analysis posted on Monday !!
In the near term upside resistance at 16040/16270. Supports in the zone of 15700/15500.
Volatility may continue in a tight range in next few sessions.
Stocks to watchout for :
Weird small cap stocks :
Kopran Ltd ... the stock give 30-40% over next few mths ?
Paramount Communications .... Huge volumes in the last few sessions. Stock can double up in next 3 mths.
Cranes Software .... excellent bottom fishing candidate can surprise a 20% move.
These are speculative calls so please do your own research !!! !!!
SENSEX the next Multibagger ....a technical view - Analyse India Seminar
Tentatively scheduled - 15 November Ahmedabad. Would like to know if there are people interested so can confirm the schedule by weekend. Please mail to analyseindia@gmail.com to confirm or call Asif 09833666151.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
21st Month - Fundamental/Price and Time Projections.
Fundamental and Time Projections :
Before i start of with a view on time projections. Do have a look into the previous updates posted at the end of this article.Also have a look on the video posted.
November !!! This is yet again the zone of 21st month from January last year. Had mentioned about losing confidence in the month of Oct/November in my post in March.
So when we are in an important time period month as well as at a crucial stage in the extreme short term with extreme volatility and indecision in the markets.
Although trying to project time and price over such a long period is definitely a difficult task but there is no harm trying it. In the last 1 year have been accurate with the time zones but finding the magnitude has been real hard. October we did see economic data and confidence at lowest but index did more then what we thought. For Feb-March did point out the bottoming time and a re-test but had expected the rally to extend till May but it went much beyond till Oct.
Right now !!!
1) Time Projections
Sensex has seen a roller coaster journey from 21k to 7.7k followed that by 8k to 17k and is back at 15k odd.
On the time front November being the 21st month ( not exact ) i do expect the confidence levels of the market-men reducing with lots of talk and speculation. We do see markets react weirdly around this time zones but end up making a major top or bottom.
There are two viewpoints here --- Me the BULL ! and the analytical Bear.
There would be a camp which expects a nice correction in the month of November ( already started couple of weeks back ) which may create an important bottom and set and upward welcome to 2010 !!!
The other camp is the one which believes its a major BEAR rally and index might have well made a major top in November and the next big dip is ahead of us which may take us to 12k-13k or the ultra bearish ones may even call it 10.5k !!
As always i would like to go wrong or very accurate then to be a diplomatic analyst and be right all the time with 4-5 alternatives in my hand !!
For me i do prefer the BULLISH Scenario.
The time projection for the same suggests that Index may see a good retracement bottom in the month of November followed by which next 3-5 months would see yet another upmove. This may also consist of a consolidation phase for 3-5 weeks which may be terribly boring also.
For the Bearish Scenario !
The people in this camp have been calling for a new low since march and a top since 12k !!. Index might have seen a major top at 17493 and should now well be on a major fibonacci retracement to the extent of 50% of the entire upmove. Ultra bears might even look for 60-80% retracement.
2) Price Projections
This is the most difficult part as projecting an accurate price target is next to impossible.
For the bullish scenario one would expect a retracement of 23.6% or 38.2% which would mean 15270 and 13900 would be a possible bottom area.If its going to 13900 then also it should see a stopover at 15.2k. Once the bottom is reached one can expect 17-18k to be tested in next 3-5 months. We would review the same in March 2010 !!
Some of fundamental supporting stuff for the same is ...
Expect earnings upgrade to happen in Dec/March quarters with demand pick up by March. Also the low base in last 2 quarters of 2008 ( i.e Dec/March) would make the current earnings much better. Financial window dressing for Dec/March by Institutions and so on.
Although i dont prefer the Bearish scenario such a projection suggests that Sensex is close to a January scenario and a major margin based panic could see a sell of of 4.5k points ( Rising Wedge range 13.2k to 17.5k ). The targets for the same would be 12.5k in the month of November itself and then index embarks on a re-test of 15k/17k which will take a longer time.
Fundamentally supporting stuff :
Excellent earnings in June/Oct are due to cost-cutting, fresh-inventory build-up,lower raw material/labour costs. Margings have increased sales have not.
100% move up leaves a lot of profit on the table to give the first correction and a cascading effect of sell-off takes it further.
Economy may have seen the worst but still in lots of trouble.
Thats a whole lot of sentences with possible predictions but the bottom line is next few weeks could be tricky which will then set the tone for Dec to March. Remain bullish for medium term but short term volatility will give excellent investment opportunities.
BELOW ARE THE EXCERPTS from previous posts.
My expectation is that by end of October the major skeletons would be out !! although repercussions and lagged effect would stay till Jan 09 and a new thought process could emerge around March - May 09.
Ideally the best time to invest would be in Feb-March and stability or turnaround could start March-May . This has been the preferred guess from my side since a long time although levels went wrong in Oct maybe again we may or may not be exactly correct in next few months. But yes i do feel there would be ample opportunities in these 3-4 months as a sharp bear rally could also be there and gr8 investment/trading gains on cracks too.
So if one is a a very defensive investor and low risk apetite then can go SIP mode very very slowly in this period or rather have a fresh look around Feb-March whether index is at 7-8k or 12k comfort could be back around Feb-March and more confidence by May.
The next important time period comes around the 21st month which comes in November roughly where in we may see some uncertainty and loosing confidence also before we might get over the after effects of the bear run.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
Monday, November 02, 2009
Sensex 15300-15500 zone should hold up.
I have just made a new video presentation with technical charts of Sensex from various angles and technical observations. One of the charts which i forgot to include is posted above ( cant speak alone for 20 mins again )
Conclusion :
Sensex has a strong band of support at 15500 which should hold up for the short term. Investors were advised to book profits and generate cash above 16500 and 17200 should now look to redeploy cash slowly below 15900 to 15500 zone. Only a close below 14700 would make us negate the bullish approach.
Upside resistances 16350 ( mentioned yest and Sensex top at 16360 ! ). 16250-16350 and 16600 are resistances for short term moves.
PLEASE CLICK ON THE LINK BELOW OR PASTE IT INTO YOUR BROWSER TO CHECK THE VIDEO PRESENTATION.
For those who cannot bear my boring monotonous voice ( even i havent heard after the quick make ) or for a quick view on charts can definitely download the 10 odd charts from the link below.
Stocks to watchout for :
Bank Of India - Buy on declines from 340-310 with a medium term view and tgt 380-400.
EIH Ltd buy around 122-110 or lower with a medium term target 140/165.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
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